The Iranian regime’s rapid and orderly leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced perceptions of institutional cohesion. Mojtaba Khamenei’s March election as successor, accompanied by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, demonstrated continuity without visible fractures. Ongoing external military exchanges and diplomatic talks with the United States have not produced defections or power struggles that would signal an imminent coup attempt. With only weeks remaining until June 30, traders view the short timeline and absence of recent internal military realignments as significant barriers. A sudden breakdown in negotiations or an unforeseen elite split could still shift probabilities, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,669,966 Vol.
$1,669,966 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,669,966 Vol.
$1,669,966 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s rapid and orderly leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced perceptions of institutional cohesion. Mojtaba Khamenei’s March election as successor, accompanied by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, demonstrated continuity without visible fractures. Ongoing external military exchanges and diplomatic talks with the United States have not produced defections or power struggles that would signal an imminent coup attempt. With only weeks remaining until June 30, traders view the short timeline and absence of recent internal military realignments as significant barriers. A sudden breakdown in negotiations or an unforeseen elite split could still shift probabilities, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,669,966End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s rapid and orderly leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced perceptions of institutional cohesion. Mojtaba Khamenei’s March election as successor, accompanied by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, demonstrated continuity without visible fractures. Ongoing external military exchanges and diplomatic talks with the United States have not produced defections or power struggles that would signal an imminent coup attempt. With only weeks remaining until June 30, traders view the short timeline and absence of recent internal military realignments as significant barriers. A sudden breakdown in negotiations or an unforeseen elite split could still shift probabilities, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,669,975End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s rapid and orderly leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced perceptions of institutional cohesion. Mojtaba Khamenei’s March election as successor, accompanied by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, demonstrated continuity without visible fractures. Ongoing external military exchanges and diplomatic talks with the United States have not produced defections or power struggles that would signal an imminent coup attempt. With only weeks remaining until June 30, traders view the short timeline and absence of recent internal military realignments as significant barriers. A sudden breakdown in negotiations or an unforeseen elite split could still shift probabilities, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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