Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Pakistan’s Adiala Jail under a 14-year corruption sentence from the Al-Qadir Trust case and a separate 17-year term from the December 2025 Toshakhana-II conviction, with appeals pending in higher courts and no suspension or bail granted on the primary convictions. Over 180 additional cases continue, and the government has consistently stated that any relief must come through the judicial process rather than political negotiations. Recent Supreme Court orders in August 2026 for hospital evaluation addressed health concerns including vision loss but did not alter custody status, and Khan was returned to prison after examination. Establishment reluctance to facilitate his political return, combined with the limited time remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Pakistan’s Adiala Jail under a 14-year corruption sentence from the Al-Qadir Trust case and a separate 17-year term from the December 2025 Toshakhana-II conviction, with appeals pending in higher courts and no suspension or bail granted on the primary convictions. Over 180 additional cases continue, and the government has consistently stated that any relief must come through the judicial process rather than political negotiations. Recent Supreme Court orders in August 2026 for hospital evaluation addressed health concerns including vision loss but did not alter custody status, and Khan was returned to prison after examination. Establishment reluctance to facilitate his political return, combined with the limited time remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,756End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Pakistan’s Adiala Jail under a 14-year corruption sentence from the Al-Qadir Trust case and a separate 17-year term from the December 2025 Toshakhana-II conviction, with appeals pending in higher courts and no suspension or bail granted on the primary convictions. Over 180 additional cases continue, and the government has consistently stated that any relief must come through the judicial process rather than political negotiations. Recent Supreme Court orders in August 2026 for hospital evaluation addressed health concerns including vision loss but did not alter custody status, and Khan was returned to prison after examination. Establishment reluctance to facilitate his political return, combined with the limited time remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,756End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Pakistan’s Adiala Jail under a 14-year corruption sentence from the Al-Qadir Trust case and a separate 17-year term from the December 2025 Toshakhana-II conviction, with appeals pending in higher courts and no suspension or bail granted on the primary convictions. Over 180 additional cases continue, and the government has consistently stated that any relief must come through the judicial process rather than political negotiations. Recent Supreme Court orders in August 2026 for hospital evaluation addressed health concerns including vision loss but did not alter custody status, and Khan was returned to prison after examination. Establishment reluctance to facilitate his political return, combined with the limited time remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions