The Illinois 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi’s decision to run for Senate, leaving an open race rated Solid D by major forecasters. Melissa Bean, who previously represented the district for three terms until 2010, secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field. Her Republican opponent, Jennifer Davis, advanced from a smaller primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican in over 15 years. Fundraising and historical voting patterns have reinforced the Democratic advantage, producing the current 93.5% trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican national environment, a major unforeseen development involving the Democratic nominee, or substantially higher-than-expected GOP turnout in November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-08 House Election Winner
IL-08 House Election Winner
$20,725 Vol.
$20,725 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$20,725 Vol.
$20,725 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,403 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$11,322 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi’s decision to run for Senate, leaving an open race rated Solid D by major forecasters. Melissa Bean, who previously represented the district for three terms until 2010, secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field. Her Republican opponent, Jennifer Davis, advanced from a smaller primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican in over 15 years. Fundraising and historical voting patterns have reinforced the Democratic advantage, producing the current 93.5% trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican national environment, a major unforeseen development involving the Democratic nominee, or substantially higher-than-expected GOP turnout in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$20,725End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi’s decision to run for Senate, leaving an open race rated Solid D by major forecasters. Melissa Bean, who previously represented the district for three terms until 2010, secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field. Her Republican opponent, Jennifer Davis, advanced from a smaller primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican in over 15 years. Fundraising and historical voting patterns have reinforced the Democratic advantage, producing the current 93.5% trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican national environment, a major unforeseen development involving the Democratic nominee, or substantially higher-than-expected GOP turnout in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,725End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 8th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi’s decision to run for Senate, leaving an open race rated Solid D by major forecasters. Melissa Bean, who previously represented the district for three terms until 2010, secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field. Her Republican opponent, Jennifer Davis, advanced from a smaller primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican in over 15 years. Fundraising and historical voting patterns have reinforced the Democratic advantage, producing the current 93.5% trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican national environment, a major unforeseen development involving the Democratic nominee, or substantially higher-than-expected GOP turnout in November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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