Iceland's referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations concluded with a 52.8% to 47.2% rejection of the government proposal, producing a 5.6 percentage point margin of victory for the No side that aligns with the 3–6% outcome priced at 100%. Primary drivers included widespread voter prioritization of sovereignty and control over fisheries—a sector representing substantial economic interests and nearly unanimous industry opposition—over arguments for enhanced security amid Arctic tensions and trade uncertainties. An urban-rural divide proved decisive, with Yes support concentrated in Reykjavík constituencies while rural districts delivered decisive No majorities, alongside record turnout exceeding 82%. The result respects the non-binding vote under the current coalition's term through 2028. Challenges to this margin could arise from final constituency certifications, procedural disputes in the Althing, or any official recount adjustments, though preliminary tallies across all districts have stabilized the outcome.
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