**The market reflects the standard pace of federal investigations into use-of-force incidents.** The July 13, 2026, Biddeford shooting by ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations agent David Brouillette remains under review by the Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General, with the agent on administrative leave and Maine’s attorney general participating in the initial inquiry. No charging decision or grand-jury referral has been announced in the intervening five weeks. **Key structural factors support the current 83% “No” pricing.** Criminal charges against federal law-enforcement officers in on-duty shootings are typically preceded by lengthy evidence reviews, witness interviews, and coordination between DHS OIG, the Department of Justice, and local prosecutors. With only fifteen days remaining until the August 31 resolution date, the timeline makes a swift charging decision improbable absent an extraordinary development such as new video evidence or an immediate DOJ directive. **Recent public statements and procedural updates have not altered that trajectory.** Administration officials have addressed vetting concerns and pledged nationwide body-camera rollout, while Maine lawmakers and advocates continue to call for transparency; none of these actions have produced a confirmed charging timeline. Trader consensus therefore prices the narrow remaining window and the ordinary investigative sequence as the dominant drivers keeping the probability of charges by month-end low.