**IAEA access to Iran's Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz nuclear facilities remains blocked following 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes that damaged or destroyed key enrichment infrastructure at these sites.** Iranian law and parliamentary decisions prohibit inspections of attacked locations without new protocols or a final diplomatic agreement, while the IAEA has verified continuity only at unaffected sites such as Bushehr. Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly called for urgent on-site verification of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles—much of it believed stored in Isfahan tunnels—yet Iran has not disclosed quantities, locations, or permitted returns since the attacks. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on stockpile disposition and enrichment limits have produced interim understandings but no firm access timeline, with additional 2026 strikes further complicating entry. Trader probabilities for near-term visits therefore reflect these legal, security, and diplomatic barriers, tempered by any breakthrough in verification modalities before specific resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions