**Trader consensus on "No" at 98.4% reflects the absence of any scheduled or feasible human lunar landing before year-end.** NASA restructured Artemis in February 2026, converting the planned Artemis III landing into a 2027 low-Earth-orbit docking rehearsal with prototype landers from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin; the first crewed landing is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028. China continues prototype work on its Long March 10, Mengzhou, and Lanyue systems but holds to a pre-2030 goal with no 2026 attempt. Starship orbital and propellant-transfer tests remain focused on uncrewed milestones, while SLS/Orion hardware advances target 2027. With roughly ten weeks remaining and no launch vehicles, crews, or landing systems certified for a 2026 surface mission, only an unforeseen private or international surprise could alter the outcome—scenarios traders view as negligible given development timelines and verification requirements.