**Trader consensus has converged on the 80-99 bin at near-certainty because official preliminary counts place August 2026 tornado activity at 87 confirmed reports, squarely inside that range.** NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information data and National Weather Service surveys document two notable outbreaks on August 11 and 20 that produced most of the month’s activity, offsetting the typical suppression expected under established El Niño conditions. The 1991–2020 August climatology averages 81 tornadoes; the 2026 total sits modestly above that baseline while remaining well below the elevated counts seen in active years. Final NCEI verification, scheduled for release around September 9, will resolve the market, but preliminary tallies from the Storm Prediction Center already align closely enough with historical analogs to leave little realistic path for outcomes outside 80-99 absent major reclassification of events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-99 100.0%
<40 <1%
40–59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$11,565 Vol.
$11,565 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<40
No
40–59
No
60-79
No
80-99
Yes
100–119
No
120–139
No
140-169
No
170–199
No
200+
No
80-99 100.0%
<40 <1%
40–59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$11,565 Vol.
$11,565 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$460 Vol.
No
40–59
$711 Vol.
No
60-79
$2,224 Vol.
No
80-99
$4,900 Vol.
Yes
100–119
$1,458 Vol.
No
120–139
$267 Vol.
No
140-169
$413 Vol.
No
170–199
$540 Vol.
No
200+
$592 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus has converged on the 80-99 bin at near-certainty because official preliminary counts place August 2026 tornado activity at 87 confirmed reports, squarely inside that range.** NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information data and National Weather Service surveys document two notable outbreaks on August 11 and 20 that produced most of the month’s activity, offsetting the typical suppression expected under established El Niño conditions. The 1991–2020 August climatology averages 81 tornadoes; the 2026 total sits modestly above that baseline while remaining well below the elevated counts seen in active years. Final NCEI verification, scheduled for release around September 9, will resolve the market, but preliminary tallies from the Storm Prediction Center already align closely enough with historical analogs to leave little realistic path for outcomes outside 80-99 absent major reclassification of events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$11,565End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus has converged on the 80-99 bin at near-certainty because official preliminary counts place August 2026 tornado activity at 87 confirmed reports, squarely inside that range.** NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information data and National Weather Service surveys document two notable outbreaks on August 11 and 20 that produced most of the month’s activity, offsetting the typical suppression expected under established El Niño conditions. The 1991–2020 August climatology averages 81 tornadoes; the 2026 total sits modestly above that baseline while remaining well below the elevated counts seen in active years. Final NCEI verification, scheduled for release around September 9, will resolve the market, but preliminary tallies from the Storm Prediction Center already align closely enough with historical analogs to leave little realistic path for outcomes outside 80-99 absent major reclassification of events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$11,565End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on the 80-99 bin at near-certainty because official preliminary counts place August 2026 tornado activity at 87 confirmed reports, squarely inside that range.** NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information data and National Weather Service surveys document two notable outbreaks on August 11 and 20 that produced most of the month’s activity, offsetting the typical suppression expected under established El Niño conditions. The 1991–2020 August climatology averages 81 tornadoes; the 2026 total sits modestly above that baseline while remaining well below the elevated counts seen in active years. Final NCEI verification, scheduled for release around September 9, will resolve the market, but preliminary tallies from the Storm Prediction Center already align closely enough with historical analogs to leave little realistic path for outcomes outside 80-99 absent major reclassification of events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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