Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including blockades, mine threats, and targeted strikes on tankers, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely suppressed near 4–6 vessels per day in late August 2026, producing weekly totals squarely in the 20–39 range. Kpler and JMIC data confirm commodity vessel crossings remained in single digits on most days around August 31, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80–130 daily, as operators rerouted or idled amid elevated war-risk premiums and route uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game consensus in the 98.6% outcome reflects the durable impact of enforcement actions and sanctions on commercial flows. A credible de-escalation or verified safe corridor could lift volumes above that band, while intensified attacks might push counts lower.