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Geopolitics·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)
Geopolitics·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)

Ended: Apr 19

Jun 1

Jun 7

Jun 14

Ended: Apr 19

Jun 1

Jun 7

Jun 14

80+ 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-19 <1%

20-29 <1%

Polymarket

$273,534 Vol.

80+ 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-19 <1%

20-29 <1%

Polymarket

$273,534 Vol.

<10

$17,369 Vol.

No

10-19

$17,228 Vol.

No

20-29

$10,519 Vol.

No

30-39

$11,012 Vol.

No

40-49

$12,352 Vol.

No

50-59

$9,795 Vol.

No

60-69

$9,615 Vol.

No

70-79

$11,668 Vol.

No

80+

$173,977 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 80+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 13-19, driven by IMF Portwatch data confirming the weekly total surpassed this threshold amid partial traffic recovery. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February 2026—marked by blockades, vessel seizures, attacks on commercial shipping, GPS jamming, and AIS spoofing—had slashed daily transits from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels to as few as 6-14 earlier in April. However, a brief ceasefire around April 17-19 prompted a surge, with reports of 20+ vessels attempting passage on April 17 and 35 crossing on April 19, elevating the week's tally. Late-breaking revisions to IMF data prior to final publication could theoretically challenge this, though market rules disregard post-final adjustments, cementing the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$273,534
End Date
Apr 19, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 80+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 13-19, driven by IMF Portwatch data confirming the weekly total surpassed this threshold amid partial traffic recovery. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since late February 2026—marked by blockades, vessel seizures, attacks on commercial shipping, GPS jamming, and AIS spoofing—had slashed daily transits from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels to as few as 6-14 earlier in April. However, a brief ceasefire around April 17-19 prompted a surge, with reports of 20+ vessels attempting passage on April 17 and 35 crossing on April 19, elevating the week's tally. Late-breaking revisions to IMF data prior to final publication could theoretically challenge this, though market rules disregard post-final adjustments, cementing the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$273,534
End Date
Apr 19, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "80+" at 100%, followed by "<10" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)" has generated $273.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)" is "80+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<10" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.