Recent Houthi territorial gains, including seizures of Mokha, the Hanish Islands, and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, have intensified security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and compressed weekly vessel transits. This has anchored trader sentiment around the 170-189 outcome at 69.4% implied probability, consistent with observed daily volumes in the low-to-mid 20s from Kpler and IMF PortWatch AIS data. Heightened war-risk premiums and selective enforcement—targeting Saudi-linked traffic while permitting broader flows—have sustained subdued but non-zero activity near 22 vessels on recent days, below the pre-2024 baseline near 50-60 and August averages around 22. Partial carrier returns to Suez routes and some dark transits have prevented deeper declines into the <170 bin at 12.8%, though ongoing volatility and UN warnings on navigational threats continue to cap upside into higher ranges.