Trader consensus favors 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting ICE's ramped-up arrests averaging over 1,100 per day early this year amid record detention levels near 70,000, yet constrained by processing backlogs, limited bed capacity, and inconsistent data reporting highlighted in recent Deportation Data Project releases through March. The 400,000-500,000 range at 24% accounts for planned expansions like 10,000 new hires and worksite raids proposed by MAGA allies in early April, while lower brackets like under 200,000 gain traction from ongoing lawsuits, sanctuary city resistance, and prioritization of criminal noncitizens over mass interior enforcement. DHS funding requests for detention growth and executive actions under Border Czar Tom Homan could accelerate numbers, though historical base rates suggest logistical hurdles cap aggressive targets above 1 million.