Recent NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data show persistently quiet solar conditions throughout May 10–16, with subdued solar wind speeds near 400 km/s and low Kp indices that prevented any G3-level geomagnetic storms or stronger events. An isolated M5.8 flare from active region AR4436 on May 10 produced only an R2 radio blackout, falling short of the R3+ threshold required for market resolution, while no S3+ radiation storms were detected. This observational record aligns with trader consensus favoring zero major events at 99.5% implied probability. An unexpected X-class flare or high-speed stream from a coronal hole could still have triggered G3+ conditions in the final hours, though forecast models consistently limited impacts to G1 levels or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$6,089 Vol.
$6,089 Vol.
May 16, 2026
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
6+
No
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$6,089 Vol.
$6,089 Vol.
May 16, 2026
0
$797 Vol.
Yes
1
$345 Vol.
No
2
$692 Vol.
No
3
$1,430 Vol.
No
4
$1,395 Vol.
No
5
$1,200 Vol.
No
6+
$230 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data show persistently quiet solar conditions throughout May 10–16, with subdued solar wind speeds near 400 km/s and low Kp indices that prevented any G3-level geomagnetic storms or stronger events. An isolated M5.8 flare from active region AR4436 on May 10 produced only an R2 radio blackout, falling short of the R3+ threshold required for market resolution, while no S3+ radiation storms were detected. This observational record aligns with trader consensus favoring zero major events at 99.5% implied probability. An unexpected X-class flare or high-speed stream from a coronal hole could still have triggered G3+ conditions in the final hours, though forecast models consistently limited impacts to G1 levels or below.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$6,089End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data show persistently quiet solar conditions throughout May 10–16, with subdued solar wind speeds near 400 km/s and low Kp indices that prevented any G3-level geomagnetic storms or stronger events. An isolated M5.8 flare from active region AR4436 on May 10 produced only an R2 radio blackout, falling short of the R3+ threshold required for market resolution, while no S3+ radiation storms were detected. This observational record aligns with trader consensus favoring zero major events at 99.5% implied probability. An unexpected X-class flare or high-speed stream from a coronal hole could still have triggered G3+ conditions in the final hours, though forecast models consistently limited impacts to G1 levels or below.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$6,089End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data show persistently quiet solar conditions throughout May 10–16, with subdued solar wind speeds near 400 km/s and low Kp indices that prevented any G3-level geomagnetic storms or stronger events. An isolated M5.8 flare from active region AR4436 on May 10 produced only an R2 radio blackout, falling short of the R3+ threshold required for market resolution, while no S3+ radiation storms were detected. This observational record aligns with trader consensus favoring zero major events at 99.5% implied probability. An unexpected X-class flare or high-speed stream from a coronal hole could still have triggered G3+ conditions in the final hours, though forecast models consistently limited impacts to G1 levels or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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