Elevated inflation readings and resilient economic growth have driven the market-implied odds favoring two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 at 65.0%. The September 2026 FOMC meeting delivered the first hike of the year, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00%, with the Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1% and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional increase. Core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline measures above target, alongside solid GDP growth forecasts of 2.3%, have reinforced the hawkish stance amid supply pressures. Upcoming October CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and the late-month FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift pricing between the 21.5% odds on one hike and 10.9% on three. Trader consensus reflects real-capital bets on the data path sustaining or easing policy pressure.