Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors two 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes in 2026 at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the September FOMC's 25 bp increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range and the updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median funds rate endpoint for year-end 2026. Persistent inflation, with August core PCE at 3.4% and CPI near that level, alongside upward revisions to 2026 growth and inflation forecasts, underpin the hawkish stance despite the neutral-rate estimate rising to 3.25%. The weak September jobs report (+29,000 payrolls, unemployment at 4.2%) introduces some restraint on further tightening, yet markets still price one additional move by December. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and December decision, where incoming data on inflation and labor conditions will shape the final 2026 path.