Name: How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?
Start: 2024-12-29T22:50:43.348587Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over how many Fed rate cuts will happen in 2025.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 7 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 7 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 8 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

7 (175 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

1 (25 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 2 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 3 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

2 (50 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 6 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 6 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 7 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

6 (150 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

3 (75 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

4 (100 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

5 (125 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 8 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

8 or more (200+ bps)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

President Trump publicly pressures Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates immediately, citing the perfect timing amidst falling Treasury yields and market turmoil from new tariff announcements. Powell, however, resists the political pressure, stating there is no rush to adjust rates and emphasizing the Fed's independence while acknowledging potential inflationary impacts from tariffs.

Trump Demands Rate Cuts

BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell says "it feels like we don't need to be in a hurry" regarding interest rate cuts.

Someone in the audience asks, "Really?"

Powell responds: "Yeah!"

"CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME" https://t.co/ndkHncc4Ng https://t.co/ALZfH33bcj

*POWELL: PEOPLE STILL EXPERIENCING HIGH PRICES, NOT HAPPY

Were people not experiencing high prices three months before the elections when you cut rates by 50bps?

Let me see if I've got this. Here is Trump's brilliant plan. 1) Announce reckless tariffs to deliberately crash the stock market and send the economy into a recession. 2) This will result in lower oil prices and bond yields, allowing the Fed to cut rates. What could go wrong?

Truly incredible:

1. President Trump 10 minutes ago: Fed Chair Powell is always "late" to cut rates, "cut interest rates, Jerome, and stop playing politics!"

2. Fed Chair Powell now: It is "too soon" to determine the appropriate policy path.

Fed Chair Powell and President

BREAKING: President Trump says it would be a "PERFECT time for Powell to cut interest rates."

He said Powell is always "late" but "could now change his image."

Trump is calling for immediate rate cuts as financial markets tank on tariff news. https://t.co/N1xS5mOvoJ

President Trump calls on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates as the 10 Year Treasury has fallen below 4%. https://t.co/w4wlFjc6Fh

🚨 LATEST: Fed Chair Jerome Powell says there’s no rush to adjust interest rates, stressing the need to assess the impact of new tariffs. https://t.co/XqGSuI7lgN

🇺🇸 POWELL: FED MUST STAY INDEPENDENT — EVEN AS TARIFF FALLOUT GROWS

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the central bank won’t respond to political pressure — even as Trump calls this the “perfect time” to cut rates.

Powell:

“The Fed’s job is not to follow politics — it’s to follow https://t.co/uyMbVqgwBl https://t.co/JX9e10swPb

BREAKING: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, moments ago:

“Higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in incoming quarters.”

TRUMP DID THAT! https://t.co/3o2redWV9b

Economic reports showing weaker-than-expected job growth, with ADP reporting only 37K job additions against an estimate of 115K, have fueled speculation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, though Polymarket indicates a low likelihood for 2025. Meanwhile, Europe is almost certain to cut rates this month, contrasting with the Fed's current stance, while President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Powell for immediate rate reductions.

Fed Rate Cut Speculation

While the US Fed is ignoring demands for rate cuts, Europe is doing the opposite.

99% chance they cut rates this month.

Interest rates are tumbling Wednesday after a trio of soft economic reports. For now, bitcoin is unimpressed with the idea that Fed rate cuts could come sooner rather than later. Friday's jobs data for May could prove key.

https://t.co/SrTk08cclO

ADP JOBS MISS EXPECTATIONS WITH JUST 37K ADDS VS 115K ESTIMATE

President Trump renews pressure on Powell to cut rates -- but Polymarket still prices no 2025 cuts as the base case.

We need to cut rates now. https://t.co/ICSxS6JEYt

Recent economic data, including a moderate rise in December PPI inflation to 3.3% below expectations, has sparked uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts in 2025, with some analysts predicting no cuts before mid-year due to a resilient labor market and rising bond yields. Additionally, concerns over inflation rebounding and strong economic indicators like employment data suggest the Fed may adopt a more hawkish stance, impacting market expectations and liquidity.

Fed Rate Cuts Uncertain

It's fascinating how inflation expectations have almost perfectly bottomed exactly when the Fed started to cut rates. 

10-year breakeven rates are now at its highest level since October 2023. 

Here is a reminder that when debt limits a monetary authorities actions, inflation https://t.co/ynmFTjeAsi

From Goldman: "How unusual is it for US interest rates to rise in the early innings of a Fed cutting cycle?  Consider the following two charts, which cover 11 cutting cycles over the past 40 years. As you can see very clearly, at this number of days following the first cut, the https://t.co/SLAvdTif7W

There will be ZERO interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year warns Bank of America 🚨 https://t.co/C0IIaqeH8p

Something doesn't add up here:

Today, PPI inflation data came in BELOW expectations but the 10-year note yield hit a new 14-month high of 4.82%.

Many are confused, doesn't lower than expected inflation mean lower rates?

Bond markets are concerned. Let us explain.

(a thread)

Inflation rearing its ugly head again and causing the Fed to cut interest rates fewer times this year is the biggest concern for many market participants. Today's PPI data shows inflation isn't coming back right now. This is BULLISH

CPI tomorrow🧐

tick tock, tick tock⏳⏲️

PPI came in lower than expected, easing pressure on interest rates and stocks. For today, the narrative that has been driving stocks lower and rates higher has shifted. Tomorrow, we’ll get the CPI report, and that will set the tone for the next story.

As I mentioned yesterday, I

Friday’s employment data confirms that the economy remains strong and the labor market remains tight. Per the first chart below, this allows less room (if any) for the Fed to cut rates, and the forward curve now expects only one more cut for the cycle. I would not be surprised if https://t.co/MHiVxEtpq9

Today we get PPI and PCE data which the Fed uses for rate cuts/hikes/inflation read. Then tomorrow we get CPI. Last month both were a little hot and pushed the markets down. IF we get even a 1/10th hotter read on any numbers today/tomorrow, I'd expect this rally to reverse. $TSLA

Why is Dollar rising?

📌Because 10yr Bond Yield in US rose from 3.8% to 4.8% 

Higher Bond Yield=Stronger Dollar

📌US Fed cut Rates by 100bps in 2024..in 2025,cut may only be 50bps

Hawkish Fed=Stronger Dollar

So Dollar is rising,INR not falling

INR in fact,Outperformed peers https://t.co/8hslYPEdVn

Interest rates may need to be kept higher for longer as US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s policies could delay the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and forcing other central banks to do the same, analysts said. https://t.co/dBK5WxOg6c

📉 UBS: Fed May Still Cut Rates Twice in 2025

Despite strong December non-farm payrolls data, UBS strategists, led by Mark Haefele, believe the Fed could cut rates by 50bps this year.

📊 Key Insights:
- Markets expect no rate cuts before June, with fewer than two 25bps cuts for https://t.co/KaoVTTU5zQ

The markets are behaving as if good jobs news is bad news for interest rates and perhaps inflation. They’re not crazy. The Fed’s premature rate cuts look worse all the time. 
https://t.co/TEtULJ8cD2

🚨 Speculation Alert: No More Rate Cuts? What’s Next for Liquidity &amp; Markets? 🚨

Recent economic data hints that the Federal Reserve could stop cutting interest rates sooner than expected. If this happens, how could liquidity return to markets? From slowing quantitative https://t.co/XvwZ8MPmzB

Where stimulus comes from if the Fed doesn’t cut rates?
How about this.
Treasury General Account
12/18/2024 = $804 billion
1/8/2025 =  $620.5 billion
The Treasury has reduced the size of its cash hoard at the Fed by $180.
The TGA is not in M2 until it is spent…now it has been.

U.S. producer prices increased moderately in December, but that is unlikely to change views that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates again before the second half of this year amid labor market resilience. https://t.co/r5IzNCRCAk

BREAKING: December PPI inflation rises to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.5%.

Core PPI inflation rises to 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8%.

A smaller increase than expected, but PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023.

Further evidence of a rebound in inflation.

The stock market is letting the bond market do the dirty work to force the Fed to intervene.
Intervention is coming some time in 2025.
The only questions are the when, how &amp; what name they will give it this time.

January PPI inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5%, surpassing forecasts of 3.2%, while core PPI hit 3.6% and CPI reached a 7-month high, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve's policy pivot appears ineffective as rates for Americans have increased by 100 basis points since rate cuts began, raising concerns about stagflation and the Fed's ability to control inflation.

Inflation Surges Unexpectedly

Is this the worst "Fed pivot" in history?

Since the Fed "pivoted," CPI has RISEN to a 7-month high and PPI just hit its highest since Feb 2023.

In fact, rates paid by Americans are UP +100 bps since cuts began.

How HOT is inflation right now? Let us explain.

(a thread) https://t.co/1dFaauoPJe

BREAKING: January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%.

Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%.

PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month.

The "Fed pivot" is over. https://t.co/cRk1DhKbFH

The Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, however, and we have reached the point at which the Fed’s reverse repo program (RRP) has been all but depleted. That means that any further reductions in assets will likely start shrinking bank reserves (which would constitute a https://t.co/ljrh0cGAtl

#ETH 2023-2025 overlayed with 2019-2021

(Not looking at price targets, just merely the structure of the price action)

Fed policy change took place around this time in 2020-Currently FED has not signaled any change such as as end to QT so currently different from that standpoint https://t.co/n3vHyz5Khh

Firms surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation of 3.2% over the coming year, the lowest since Q2 2021 and equal to what firms expected at the end of 2018 https://t.co/lhpLkx0s0P

This is just an incredible segment on inflation on CNBC. 

Stagflation ahead?  

Multiple takes below on why inflation is here to stay and the Fed hasn’t been restrictive enough to contain it.  

Couldn’t agree more. Must watch 👇👇 https://t.co/jYU3UpRbC7

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Fed cuts twice
- Trump announces someone as next Fed Chair
- Powell says “Trump” during October Press Conference
- Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p3.png


Nothing Ever Happens:  Jerome Powell Edition

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Clancy is no longer serving as CEO of Twitch for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Dan Clancy's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Twitch and/or Dan Clancy, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,200.00 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

2 (50 bps)
$2,863,369 Vol.
47%
0123456789
%

3 (75 bps)
$2,864,796 Vol.
52%
0123456789
0123456789
%

4 (100 bps)
$2,748,760 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

5 (125 bps)
$1,988,600 Vol.
1%

6 (150 bps)
$2,352,751 Vol.
<1%

7 (175 bps)
$3,012,738 Vol.
<1%

8 or more (200+ bps)
$2,368,032 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

About

Related

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

2 (50 bps)$2,863,369 Vol.47%0123456789%buy Yes48¢buy No52¢

3 (75 bps)$2,864,796 Vol.52%01234567890123456789%buy Yes53¢buy No47¢

4 (100 bps)$2,748,760 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.2¢buy No97.8¢

5 (125 bps)$1,988,600 Vol.1%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.4¢

6 (150 bps)$2,352,751 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.8¢

7 (175 bps)$3,012,738 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.8¢

8 or more (200+ bps)$2,368,032 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.1¢buy No99.9¢

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

About

Related

2 (50 bps)
$2,863,369 Vol.
47%
0123456789
%

3 (75 bps)
$2,864,796 Vol.
52%
0123456789
0123456789
%

4 (100 bps)
$2,748,760 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

5 (125 bps)
$1,988,600 Vol.
1%

6 (150 bps)
$2,352,751 Vol.
<1%

7 (175 bps)
$3,012,738 Vol.
<1%

8 or more (200+ bps)
$2,368,032 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%