3 (75 bps) 100.0%
0 <1%
1 (25 bps) <1%
2 (50 bps) <1%
$31,441,120 Vol.
$31,441,120 Vol.
Dec 10, 2025
0
No
1 (25 bps)
No
2 (50 bps)
No
3 (75 bps)
Yes
4 (100 bps)
No
5 (125 bps)
No
6 (150 bps)
No
7 (175 bps)
No
8 or more (200+ bps)
No
3 (75 bps) 100.0%
0 <1%
1 (25 bps) <1%
2 (50 bps) <1%
$31,441,120 Vol.
$31,441,120 Vol.
Dec 10, 2025
0
$3,257,923 Vol.
No
1 (25 bps)
$2,906,249 Vol.
No
2 (50 bps)
$3,706,364 Vol.
No
3 (75 bps)
$3,568,731 Vol.
Yes
4 (100 bps)
$3,089,648 Vol.
No
5 (125 bps)
$2,273,086 Vol.
No
6 (150 bps)
$2,623,047 Vol.
No
7 (175 bps)
$6,045,993 Vol.
No
8 or more (200+ bps)
$3,970,079 Vol.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 2 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 3 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 6 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 6 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 7 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 7 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 7 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 8 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 8 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2024, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$31,441,120End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 29, 2024, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Jun 4 2025
Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Economic reports showing weaker-than-expected job growth, with ADP reporting only 37K job additions against an estimate of 115K, have fueled speculation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, though Polymarket indicates a low likelihood for 2025. Meanwhile, Europe is almost certain to cut rates this month, contrasting with the Fed's current stance, while President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Powell for immediate rate reductions.
Apr 4 2025
Trump Demands Rate Cuts
President Trump publicly pressures Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates immediately, citing the perfect timing amidst falling Treasury yields and market turmoil from new tariff announcements. Powell, however, resists the political pressure, stating there is no rush to adjust rates and emphasizing the Fed's independence while acknowledging potential inflationary impacts from tariffs.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 2 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 3 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 6 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 6 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 7 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 7 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 7 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 8 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 8 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$31,441,120End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 29, 2024, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Jun 4 2025
Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Economic reports showing weaker-than-expected job growth, with ADP reporting only 37K job additions against an estimate of 115K, have fueled speculation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, though Polymarket indicates a low likelihood for 2025. Meanwhile, Europe is almost certain to cut rates this month, contrasting with the Fed's current stance, while President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Powell for immediate rate reductions.
Apr 4 2025
Trump Demands Rate Cuts
President Trump publicly pressures Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates immediately, citing the perfect timing amidst falling Treasury yields and market turmoil from new tariff announcements. Powell, however, resists the political pressure, stating there is no rush to adjust rates and emphasizing the Fed's independence while acknowledging potential inflationary impacts from tariffs.
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions