With 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-August 2026—against the USGS long-term average of 15–20 annually—trader consensus favors 14–16 or 17–19 totals for the full year. Recent activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including the June 7.8 Philippines event, paired Venezuela 7.5/7.2 quakes, July Mexico 7.3, and August 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia shocks. These align with typical subduction-zone rates and do not indicate a departure from historical patterns. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, the implied probabilities reflect expectations of a near-average pace of additional events, tempered by the inherent variability in global seismicity monitored by agencies like the USGS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 48%
17–19 37%
20+ 10.2%
11–13 9%
$1,387,921 Vol.
$1,387,921 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8–10
<1%
11–13
9%
14–16
48%
17–19
37%
20+
10%
14–16 48%
17–19 37%
20+ 10.2%
11–13 9%
$1,387,921 Vol.
$1,387,921 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8–10
$159,694 Vol.
<1%
11–13
$415,865 Vol.
9%
14–16
$187,987 Vol.
48%
17–19
$212,603 Vol.
37%
20+
$67,739 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-August 2026—against the USGS long-term average of 15–20 annually—trader consensus favors 14–16 or 17–19 totals for the full year. Recent activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including the June 7.8 Philippines event, paired Venezuela 7.5/7.2 quakes, July Mexico 7.3, and August 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia shocks. These align with typical subduction-zone rates and do not indicate a departure from historical patterns. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, the implied probabilities reflect expectations of a near-average pace of additional events, tempered by the inherent variability in global seismicity monitored by agencies like the USGS.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,387,921End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-August 2026—against the USGS long-term average of 15–20 annually—trader consensus favors 14–16 or 17–19 totals for the full year. Recent activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including the June 7.8 Philippines event, paired Venezuela 7.5/7.2 quakes, July Mexico 7.3, and August 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia shocks. These align with typical subduction-zone rates and do not indicate a departure from historical patterns. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, the implied probabilities reflect expectations of a near-average pace of additional events, tempered by the inherent variability in global seismicity monitored by agencies like the USGS.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,387,921End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-August 2026—against the USGS long-term average of 15–20 annually—trader consensus favors 14–16 or 17–19 totals for the full year. Recent activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including the June 7.8 Philippines event, paired Venezuela 7.5/7.2 quakes, July Mexico 7.3, and August 7.7 Indonesia and 7.4 Colombia shocks. These align with typical subduction-zone rates and do not indicate a departure from historical patterns. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, the implied probabilities reflect expectations of a near-average pace of additional events, tempered by the inherent variability in global seismicity monitored by agencies like the USGS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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