Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
0 99.5%
1 11.0%
3 1.2%
2 <1%
$27,557 Vol.
$27,557 Vol.
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
0 99.5%
1 11.0%
3 1.2%
2 <1%
$27,557 Vol.
$27,557 Vol.
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurring worldwide between June 8 and June 14 because official USGS monitoring recorded no events meeting that threshold during the interval. Global seismic catalogs showed only lower-magnitude activity, consistent with typical background rates outside major subduction zones or aftershock sequences. This outcome aligns with the absence of significant tectonic triggers or swarm activity in high-risk regions during those seven days. A realistic challenge would require post-event magnitude recalibrations by USGS or discovery of an unreported deep or remote event exceeding the cutoff, though such revisions are uncommon once preliminary data are reviewed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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