USGS seismic monitoring data has confirmed exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during the May 11–17 window, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. This count falls squarely within the long-term global average of five to eight such events per week, driven by routine activity along major subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments. No large-magnitude clusters, aftershock sequences, or unusual tectonic shifts elevated the tally above baseline rates, as tracked by the USGS Advanced National Seismic System. Final catalog reviews could theoretically alter one or two borderline events through magnitude revisions, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary detections stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$159,465 Vol.
$159,465 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
Yes
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
No
6 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$159,465 Vol.
$159,465 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
Yes
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
USGS seismic monitoring data has confirmed exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during the May 11–17 window, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. This count falls squarely within the long-term global average of five to eight such events per week, driven by routine activity along major subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered mid-ocean ridge segments. No large-magnitude clusters, aftershock sequences, or unusual tectonic shifts elevated the tally above baseline rates, as tracked by the USGS Advanced National Seismic System. Final catalog reviews could theoretically alter one or two borderline events through magnitude revisions, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary detections stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions