Skip to main content
icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

>9 96.0%

≤3 <1%

4 <1%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$46,115 Vol.

>9 96.0%

≤3 <1%

4 <1%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$46,115 Vol.

≤3

$3,377 Vol.

No

4

$2,340 Vol.

No

5

$3,737 Vol.

No

6

$4,037 Vol.

No

7

$4,080 Vol.

No

8

$8,155 Vol.

No

9

$4,031 Vol.

No

>9

$16,359 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The June 8, 2026, magnitude 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in the Philippines triggered an extensive aftershock sequence that drove the weekly global count of M5.5+ events well above the nine-event threshold. USGS monitoring shows this mainshock, followed by multiple aftershocks reaching or exceeding 5.5, aligned with typical clustering along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where roughly 70 percent of such seismicity occurs. Historical baselines from USGS catalogs indicate 10–15 M5.5+ earthquakes per week on average during active periods, with aftershock productivity governed by Omori’s law producing rapid initial decay yet still elevating totals early in the June 8–14 window. Trader consensus at 96 percent for more than nine events reflects confirmed activity through mid-June rather than forecast uncertainty. A markedly quieter sequence with faster magnitude decay or absent additional clusters near Indonesia or the Aleutians could have kept the count closer to or below nine.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$46,115
End Date
Jun 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The June 8, 2026, magnitude 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in the Philippines triggered an extensive aftershock sequence that drove the weekly global count of M5.5+ events well above the nine-event threshold. USGS monitoring shows this mainshock, followed by multiple aftershocks reaching or exceeding 5.5, aligned with typical clustering along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where roughly 70 percent of such seismicity occurs. Historical baselines from USGS catalogs indicate 10–15 M5.5+ earthquakes per week on average during active periods, with aftershock productivity governed by Omori’s law producing rapid initial decay yet still elevating totals early in the June 8–14 window. Trader consensus at 96 percent for more than nine events reflects confirmed activity through mid-June rather than forecast uncertainty. A markedly quieter sequence with faster magnitude decay or absent additional clusters near Indonesia or the Aleutians could have kept the count closer to or below nine.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$46,115
End Date
Jun 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">9" at 100%, followed by "≤3" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?" has generated $46.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?" is ">9" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤3" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.