Recent seismic activity along major subduction zones in the western Pacific, including confirmed magnitude 6.7 and 6.2 events in Indonesia and the Philippines plus additional 5.5+ shocks in Japan during the first half of the period, has reinforced trader consensus around more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for June 15-21. USGS data reflect typical background rates driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions at convergent boundaries, with historical weekly averages for such events falling in the 8-12 range depending on aftershock sequences and regional clustering. No unusual global swarm or quiet period has emerged to alter model expectations, though the remaining days of the window could shift totals if new aftershocks or unrelated events occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?
>9 100.0%
≤5 <1%
6 <1%
7 <1%
$39,414 Vol.
$39,414 Vol.
≤5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
>9 100.0%
≤5 <1%
6 <1%
7 <1%
$39,414 Vol.
$39,414 Vol.
≤5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent seismic activity along major subduction zones in the western Pacific, including confirmed magnitude 6.7 and 6.2 events in Indonesia and the Philippines plus additional 5.5+ shocks in Japan during the first half of the period, has reinforced trader consensus around more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for June 15-21. USGS data reflect typical background rates driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions at convergent boundaries, with historical weekly averages for such events falling in the 8-12 range depending on aftershock sequences and regional clustering. No unusual global swarm or quiet period has emerged to alter model expectations, though the remaining days of the window could shift totals if new aftershocks or unrelated events occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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