USGS seismic monitoring confirms more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between June 1 and June 7, 2026, driving the market-implied probability of that outcome to 100 percent. Routine tectonic activity along major subduction zones and fault systems, including events such as a magnitude 6.2 near Italy and several magnitude 5.5–5.7 shocks off Oregon, Japan, and other regions, produced a weekly total exceeding the typical global baseline of roughly 10–15 such events. Trader consensus reflects the final USGS catalog, with little uncertainty once the observation window closed. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to rare post-review magnitude revisions for borderline cases near the 5.5 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?
>9 100.0%
9 1.2%
≤5 <1%
6 <1%
$104,792 Vol.
$104,792 Vol.
Jun 8, 2026
≤5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
>9 100.0%
9 1.2%
≤5 <1%
6 <1%
$104,792 Vol.
$104,792 Vol.
Jun 8, 2026
≤5
$82,435 Vol.
No
6
$5,206 Vol.
No
7
$638 Vol.
No
8
$1,133 Vol.
No
9
$8,528 Vol.
No
>9
$6,852 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring confirms more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between June 1 and June 7, 2026, driving the market-implied probability of that outcome to 100 percent. Routine tectonic activity along major subduction zones and fault systems, including events such as a magnitude 6.2 near Italy and several magnitude 5.5–5.7 shocks off Oregon, Japan, and other regions, produced a weekly total exceeding the typical global baseline of roughly 10–15 such events. Trader consensus reflects the final USGS catalog, with little uncertainty once the observation window closed. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to rare post-review magnitude revisions for borderline cases near the 5.5 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$104,792End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring confirms more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between June 1 and June 7, 2026, driving the market-implied probability of that outcome to 100 percent. Routine tectonic activity along major subduction zones and fault systems, including events such as a magnitude 6.2 near Italy and several magnitude 5.5–5.7 shocks off Oregon, Japan, and other regions, produced a weekly total exceeding the typical global baseline of roughly 10–15 such events. Trader consensus reflects the final USGS catalog, with little uncertainty once the observation window closed. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to rare post-review magnitude revisions for borderline cases near the 5.5 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$104,792End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
USGS seismic monitoring confirms more than nine earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between June 1 and June 7, 2026, driving the market-implied probability of that outcome to 100 percent. Routine tectonic activity along major subduction zones and fault systems, including events such as a magnitude 6.2 near Italy and several magnitude 5.5–5.7 shocks off Oregon, Japan, and other regions, produced a weekly total exceeding the typical global baseline of roughly 10–15 such events. Trader consensus reflects the final USGS catalog, with little uncertainty once the observation window closed. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to rare post-review magnitude revisions for borderline cases near the 5.5 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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