Recent seismic activity has produced at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide between August 17–23, 2026, according to USGS and monitoring reports. This count stems primarily from aftershock sequences in the Flores Sea and nearby Indonesian regions following a M7.7 mainshock on August 15, combined with independent events along Pacific subduction zones, including M6.0+ quakes near Japan and in the Scotia Sea. Such clustering aligns with typical global rates of 10–20 M5.5+ events per week in active tectonic belts, pushing trader consensus toward the >13 outcome at 82.3% implied probability. Upcoming catalog finalization by USGS may confirm exact totals but is unlikely to alter the market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
>13 99.9%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$60,147 Vol.
$60,147 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
10
No
11
No
12
No
13
No
>13
Yes
>13 99.9%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$60,147 Vol.
$60,147 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$7,036 Vol.
No
7
$1,462 Vol.
No
8
$2,682 Vol.
No
9
$3,756 Vol.
No
10
$7,289 Vol.
No
11
$2,673 Vol.
No
12
$5,368 Vol.
No
13
$8,385 Vol.
No
>13
$21,496 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity has produced at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide between August 17–23, 2026, according to USGS and monitoring reports. This count stems primarily from aftershock sequences in the Flores Sea and nearby Indonesian regions following a M7.7 mainshock on August 15, combined with independent events along Pacific subduction zones, including M6.0+ quakes near Japan and in the Scotia Sea. Such clustering aligns with typical global rates of 10–20 M5.5+ events per week in active tectonic belts, pushing trader consensus toward the >13 outcome at 82.3% implied probability. Upcoming catalog finalization by USGS may confirm exact totals but is unlikely to alter the market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$60,147End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity has produced at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide between August 17–23, 2026, according to USGS and monitoring reports. This count stems primarily from aftershock sequences in the Flores Sea and nearby Indonesian regions following a M7.7 mainshock on August 15, combined with independent events along Pacific subduction zones, including M6.0+ quakes near Japan and in the Scotia Sea. Such clustering aligns with typical global rates of 10–20 M5.5+ events per week in active tectonic belts, pushing trader consensus toward the >13 outcome at 82.3% implied probability. Upcoming catalog finalization by USGS may confirm exact totals but is unlikely to alter the market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$60,147End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent seismic activity has produced at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide between August 17–23, 2026, according to USGS and monitoring reports. This count stems primarily from aftershock sequences in the Flores Sea and nearby Indonesian regions following a M7.7 mainshock on August 15, combined with independent events along Pacific subduction zones, including M6.0+ quakes near Japan and in the Scotia Sea. Such clustering aligns with typical global rates of 10–20 M5.5+ events per week in active tectonic belts, pushing trader consensus toward the >13 outcome at 82.3% implied probability. Upcoming catalog finalization by USGS may confirm exact totals but is unlikely to alter the market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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