**Persistent low inflows from the 2026 water year’s exceptionally weak snowpack and runoff—only 37% of average—have driven Lake Powell to 3,517.58 ft as of early September, with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projections placing the most-probable end-of-year elevation near 3,508–3,516 ft.** New 2027–2028 operating guidelines prioritize releases of 6.0–7.0 million acre-feet to hold the reservoir at or above the 3,510-ft threshold that safeguards Glen Canyon Dam hydropower and infrastructure reliability. This operational focus, combined with supplemental upstream transfers from Flaming Gorge, supports the market’s leading 53.5% implied probability for finishing above 3,510 ft while leaving substantial room for the 38.5% chance of a 3,500–3,510 ft outcome if the upcoming 2026–27 snowpack proves below average. Extreme downside scenarios below 3,490 ft remain low-probability given current management. The next major data releases—winter snowpack measurements and updated 24-month studies—will refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow low will Lake Powell drop?
How low will Lake Powell drop?
Above 3,510 ft 54%
3,500–3,510 ft 39%
Below 3,490 ft 5.1%
3,490–3,500 ft 3.8%
$13,371 Vol.
$13,371 Vol.
Apr 15, 2027
Above 3,510 ft
54%
3,500–3,510 ft
39%
3,490–3,500 ft
4%
Below 3,490 ft
5%
Above 3,510 ft 54%
3,500–3,510 ft 39%
Below 3,490 ft 5.1%
3,490–3,500 ft 3.8%
$13,371 Vol.
$13,371 Vol.
Apr 15, 2027
Above 3,510 ft
$4,273 Vol.
54%
3,500–3,510 ft
$6,352 Vol.
39%
3,490–3,500 ft
$1,590 Vol.
4%
Below 3,490 ft
$1,157 Vol.
5%
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,500.00 feet but does not fall below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.**Persistent low inflows from the 2026 water year’s exceptionally weak snowpack and runoff—only 37% of average—have driven Lake Powell to 3,517.58 ft as of early September, with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projections placing the most-probable end-of-year elevation near 3,508–3,516 ft.**
New 2027–2028 operating guidelines prioritize releases of 6.0–7.0 million acre-feet to hold the reservoir at or above the 3,510-ft threshold that safeguards Glen Canyon Dam hydropower and infrastructure reliability. This operational focus, combined with supplemental upstream transfers from Flaming Gorge, supports the market’s leading 53.5% implied probability for finishing above 3,510 ft while leaving substantial room for the 38.5% chance of a 3,500–3,510 ft outcome if the upcoming 2026–27 snowpack proves below average. Extreme downside scenarios below 3,490 ft remain low-probability given current management. The next major data releases—winter snowpack measurements and updated 24-month studies—will refine these ranges.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$13,371End Date
Apr 15, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,500.00 feet but does not fall below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.**Persistent low inflows from the 2026 water year’s exceptionally weak snowpack and runoff—only 37% of average—have driven Lake Powell to 3,517.58 ft as of early September, with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projections placing the most-probable end-of-year elevation near 3,508–3,516 ft.**
New 2027–2028 operating guidelines prioritize releases of 6.0–7.0 million acre-feet to hold the reservoir at or above the 3,510-ft threshold that safeguards Glen Canyon Dam hydropower and infrastructure reliability. This operational focus, combined with supplemental upstream transfers from Flaming Gorge, supports the market’s leading 53.5% implied probability for finishing above 3,510 ft while leaving substantial room for the 38.5% chance of a 3,500–3,510 ft outcome if the upcoming 2026–27 snowpack proves below average. Extreme downside scenarios below 3,490 ft remain low-probability given current management. The next major data releases—winter snowpack measurements and updated 24-month studies—will refine these ranges.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Volume
$13,371End Date
Apr 15, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent low inflows from the 2026 water year’s exceptionally weak snowpack and runoff—only 37% of average—have driven Lake Powell to 3,517.58 ft as of early September, with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projections placing the most-probable end-of-year elevation near 3,508–3,516 ft.** New 2027–2028 operating guidelines prioritize releases of 6.0–7.0 million acre-feet to hold the reservoir at or above the 3,510-ft threshold that safeguards Glen Canyon Dam hydropower and infrastructure reliability. This operational focus, combined with supplemental upstream transfers from Flaming Gorge, supports the market’s leading 53.5% implied probability for finishing above 3,510 ft while leaving substantial room for the 38.5% chance of a 3,500–3,510 ft outcome if the upcoming 2026–27 snowpack proves below average. Extreme downside scenarios below 3,490 ft remain low-probability given current management. The next major data releases—winter snowpack measurements and updated 24-month studies—will refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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