Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in early September 2026, including the seizure of Mocha port and Perim Island, have heightened risks to vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for crude oil and refined products. These gains enable greater leverage over Saudi-bound shipping routes that traders rerouted after disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude above $105 per barrel and reducing daily transits. The group’s declared naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels, combined with prior attacks on energy infrastructure, has elevated the probability of direct tanker seizures amid ongoing escalation. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether these developments translate into actual hijackings before year-end resolution, with volatility tied to any Saudi or coalition responses and shifts in global oil flows.