Real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration confirm Wuhan reached a daily maximum of 31°C on September 5, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold. Synoptic conditions featuring weak high pressure, light winds, and limited cloud cover supported peak heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River valley. Ensemble guidance showed tight clustering around 30–32°C, with minimal spread attributable to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Resolution hinges on official station data; only a substantial revision in post-processed observations or an undetected instrument anomaly could shift the outcome, scenarios historical verification rates place well below 5%.