Wellington's springtime temperature patterns, driven by prevailing northerly winds and clear to partly cloudy conditions under a stable high-pressure system, have aligned model consensus from agencies like MetService around a daily maximum of 16°C for September 14. Current observations and short-range forecasts show afternoon peaks reaching this level without significant cooling from sea breezes or frontal passages, supporting the market's near-certain implied probability for that exact outcome. Minor variations in wind strength or localized cloud cover could nudge readings slightly lower at the official station, though historical September averages near 15°C and the absence of disruptive systems make such shifts unlikely before resolution.