Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$188,266 Vol.
$188,266 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$188,266 Vol.
$188,266 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
$6,224 Vol.
No
8°C
$11,624 Vol.
No
9°C
$30,932 Vol.
No
10°C
$18,237 Vol.
No
11°C
$51,808 Vol.
No
12°C
$19,711 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$22,194 Vol.
No
14°C
$11,522 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,863 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,673 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$6,479 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$188,266End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$188,266End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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