Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's maximum temperature on August 10 will reach exactly 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This positioning reflects confirmed observational trends through the morning, where temperatures have tracked within the expected diurnal range for late winter, supported by the city's climatological baseline of roughly 12–14°C August highs. Trader consensus incorporates the narrow uncertainty bands typical of short-range numerical weather prediction, with minimal model spread on peak values. A sudden wind shift or unforecast cloud cover could still nudge readings marginally lower or higher before resolution, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 10?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$116,362 Vol.
$116,362 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$116,362 Vol.
$116,362 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
7°C or below
$362 Vol.
No
8°C
$421 Vol.
No
9°C
$649 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,310 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,811 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,436 Vol.
No
13°C
$13,728 Vol.
No
14°C
$12,735 Vol.
No
15°C
$34,462 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$25,427 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$21,021 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's maximum temperature on August 10 will reach exactly 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This positioning reflects confirmed observational trends through the morning, where temperatures have tracked within the expected diurnal range for late winter, supported by the city's climatological baseline of roughly 12–14°C August highs. Trader consensus incorporates the narrow uncertainty bands typical of short-range numerical weather prediction, with minimal model spread on peak values. A sudden wind shift or unforecast cloud cover could still nudge readings marginally lower or higher before resolution, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current setup.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$116,362End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's maximum temperature on August 10 will reach exactly 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This positioning reflects confirmed observational trends through the morning, where temperatures have tracked within the expected diurnal range for late winter, supported by the city's climatological baseline of roughly 12–14°C August highs. Trader consensus incorporates the narrow uncertainty bands typical of short-range numerical weather prediction, with minimal model spread on peak values. A sudden wind shift or unforecast cloud cover could still nudge readings marginally lower or higher before resolution, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current setup.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$116,362End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's maximum temperature on August 10 will reach exactly 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This positioning reflects confirmed observational trends through the morning, where temperatures have tracked within the expected diurnal range for late winter, supported by the city's climatological baseline of roughly 12–14°C August highs. Trader consensus incorporates the narrow uncertainty bands typical of short-range numerical weather prediction, with minimal model spread on peak values. A sudden wind shift or unforecast cloud cover could still nudge readings marginally lower or higher before resolution, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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