Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF points to a peak of 32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that maximizes daytime heating. This aligns with the market's near-certain positioning on 32°C, reflecting traders' assessment of verified observational thresholds from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW). Historical August maxima average near 24°C, underscoring the above-normal warmth from this synoptic pattern. Minor uncertainties around afternoon convective clouds or slight wind shifts could allow a 31°C or 33°C reading, though model agreement keeps those outcomes low-probability ahead of final daily maximum confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$31,645 Vol.
$31,645 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$31,645 Vol.
$31,645 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
$721 Vol.
No
27°C
$551 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,993 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,941 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,837 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,861 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,429 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$6,327 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,046 Vol.
No
35°C
$458 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$480 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF points to a peak of 32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that maximizes daytime heating. This aligns with the market's near-certain positioning on 32°C, reflecting traders' assessment of verified observational thresholds from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW). Historical August maxima average near 24°C, underscoring the above-normal warmth from this synoptic pattern. Minor uncertainties around afternoon convective clouds or slight wind shifts could allow a 31°C or 33°C reading, though model agreement keeps those outcomes low-probability ahead of final daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$31,645End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF points to a peak of 32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that maximizes daytime heating. This aligns with the market's near-certain positioning on 32°C, reflecting traders' assessment of verified observational thresholds from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW). Historical August maxima average near 24°C, underscoring the above-normal warmth from this synoptic pattern. Minor uncertainties around afternoon convective clouds or slight wind shifts could allow a 31°C or 33°C reading, though model agreement keeps those outcomes low-probability ahead of final daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,645End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF points to a peak of 32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that maximizes daytime heating. This aligns with the market's near-certain positioning on 32°C, reflecting traders' assessment of verified observational thresholds from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW). Historical August maxima average near 24°C, underscoring the above-normal warmth from this synoptic pattern. Minor uncertainties around afternoon convective clouds or slight wind shifts could allow a 31°C or 33°C reading, though model agreement keeps those outcomes low-probability ahead of final daily maximum confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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