Official measurements from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo reached a daily maximum of 25°C on September 13, with afternoon readings peaking near that threshold under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow before cooling into the evening. Multiple forecast models converged on this outcome days earlier, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when daytime highs typically range 25–28°C absent strong high-pressure systems or frontal passages. Late-day observations now show temperatures falling below 24°C, eliminating any realistic pathway to higher values or a revision below the recorded peak. Trader consensus at near-certainty for exactly 25°C reflects this convergence of verified station data and the market’s resolution criteria tied to official daily maxima.