Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 Vol.
$60,579 Vol.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 Vol.
$60,579 Vol.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
$1,840 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,610 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,507 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,532 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,853 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,997 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,117 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,767 Vol.
No
23°C
$10,420 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,231 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$15,704 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$60,579End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,579End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions