Recent observations and short-term forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency have pinned Tokyo’s daily maximum near 33°C, producing overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. August climatology for the region typically features highs of 31–32°C, with urban heat island effects and southerly flow adding 1–2°C locally; current model runs show minimal deviation under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. The market reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of these verified conditions rather than speculation. A rapid shift in steering winds or an unforecast sea-breeze front could still nudge the official high outside the narrow 33°C band before resolution, though such changes remain low-probability given the late timing in the diurnal cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$112,079 Vol.
$112,079 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$112,079 Vol.
$112,079 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
$3,697 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,563 Vol.
No
32°C
$15,517 Vol.
No
33°C
$19,825 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$11,708 Vol.
No
35°C
$9,838 Vol.
No
36°C
$8,611 Vol.
No
37°C
$7,956 Vol.
No
38°C
$7,201 Vol.
No
39°C
$4,653 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$15,512 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and short-term forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency have pinned Tokyo’s daily maximum near 33°C, producing overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. August climatology for the region typically features highs of 31–32°C, with urban heat island effects and southerly flow adding 1–2°C locally; current model runs show minimal deviation under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. The market reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of these verified conditions rather than speculation. A rapid shift in steering winds or an unforecast sea-breeze front could still nudge the official high outside the narrow 33°C band before resolution, though such changes remain low-probability given the late timing in the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$112,079End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and short-term forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency have pinned Tokyo’s daily maximum near 33°C, producing overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. August climatology for the region typically features highs of 31–32°C, with urban heat island effects and southerly flow adding 1–2°C locally; current model runs show minimal deviation under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. The market reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of these verified conditions rather than speculation. A rapid shift in steering winds or an unforecast sea-breeze front could still nudge the official high outside the narrow 33°C band before resolution, though such changes remain low-probability given the late timing in the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$112,079End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent observations and short-term forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency have pinned Tokyo’s daily maximum near 33°C, producing overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. August climatology for the region typically features highs of 31–32°C, with urban heat island effects and southerly flow adding 1–2°C locally; current model runs show minimal deviation under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. The market reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of these verified conditions rather than speculation. A rapid shift in steering winds or an unforecast sea-breeze front could still nudge the official high outside the narrow 33°C band before resolution, though such changes remain low-probability given the late timing in the diurnal cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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