Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a precise 32°C daytime maximum for Tokyo on August 11, driving the market's complete consensus around this outcome under stable subtropical high-pressure dominance typical of mid-August. Official guidance highlights minimal spread across ensemble models, consistent with historical climatology showing frequent 30–33°C highs amid urban heat-island effects and high humidity that amplifies perceived warmth without altering the measured peak. Traders weigh the skin-in-the-game signal from these verified observations and short-range model runs, which show low uncertainty for this 24-hour window. A sudden influx of moisture or unforecast frontal passage could realistically suppress the high by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
32°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$131,071 Vol.
$131,071 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$131,071 Vol.
$131,071 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,257 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,294 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,140 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,661 Vol.
No
28°C
$11,233 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,783 Vol.
No
30°C
$22,460 Vol.
No
31°C
$28,457 Vol.
No
32°C
$18,572 Vol.
Yes
33°C or higher
$15,583 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a precise 32°C daytime maximum for Tokyo on August 11, driving the market's complete consensus around this outcome under stable subtropical high-pressure dominance typical of mid-August. Official guidance highlights minimal spread across ensemble models, consistent with historical climatology showing frequent 30–33°C highs amid urban heat-island effects and high humidity that amplifies perceived warmth without altering the measured peak. Traders weigh the skin-in-the-game signal from these verified observations and short-range model runs, which show low uncertainty for this 24-hour window. A sudden influx of moisture or unforecast frontal passage could realistically suppress the high by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$131,071End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a precise 32°C daytime maximum for Tokyo on August 11, driving the market's complete consensus around this outcome under stable subtropical high-pressure dominance typical of mid-August. Official guidance highlights minimal spread across ensemble models, consistent with historical climatology showing frequent 30–33°C highs amid urban heat-island effects and high humidity that amplifies perceived warmth without altering the measured peak. Traders weigh the skin-in-the-game signal from these verified observations and short-range model runs, which show low uncertainty for this 24-hour window. A sudden influx of moisture or unforecast frontal passage could realistically suppress the high by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$131,071End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a precise 32°C daytime maximum for Tokyo on August 11, driving the market's complete consensus around this outcome under stable subtropical high-pressure dominance typical of mid-August. Official guidance highlights minimal spread across ensemble models, consistent with historical climatology showing frequent 30–33°C highs amid urban heat-island effects and high humidity that amplifies perceived warmth without altering the measured peak. Traders weigh the skin-in-the-game signal from these verified observations and short-range model runs, which show low uncertainty for this 24-hour window. A sudden influx of moisture or unforecast frontal passage could realistically suppress the high by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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