Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather project Tokyo's peak temperature on August 10, 2026, near 31°C (88°F) amid typical midsummer conditions driven by the East Asian monsoon pattern, high humidity exceeding 70%, and the urban heat island effect amplifying daytime warming. Historical August baselines show average highs of 30–32°C with frequent exceedances of 30°C due to subtropical air masses and limited cloud cover early in the day. This supports the market's strong consensus at 30°C as the implied outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected frontal passages or enhanced precipitation that could cap the daily maximum below the threshold, though model consensus currently shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$66,079 Vol.
$66,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$66,079 Vol.
$66,079 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
24°C or below
$2,472 Vol.
No
25°C
$474 Vol.
No
26°C
$476 Vol.
No
27°C
$752 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,434 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,366 Vol.
No
30°C
$15,451 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$7,773 Vol.
No
32°C
$11,070 Vol.
No
33°C
$8,879 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$10,932 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather project Tokyo's peak temperature on August 10, 2026, near 31°C (88°F) amid typical midsummer conditions driven by the East Asian monsoon pattern, high humidity exceeding 70%, and the urban heat island effect amplifying daytime warming. Historical August baselines show average highs of 30–32°C with frequent exceedances of 30°C due to subtropical air masses and limited cloud cover early in the day. This supports the market's strong consensus at 30°C as the implied outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected frontal passages or enhanced precipitation that could cap the daily maximum below the threshold, though model consensus currently shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$66,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather project Tokyo's peak temperature on August 10, 2026, near 31°C (88°F) amid typical midsummer conditions driven by the East Asian monsoon pattern, high humidity exceeding 70%, and the urban heat island effect amplifying daytime warming. Historical August baselines show average highs of 30–32°C with frequent exceedances of 30°C due to subtropical air masses and limited cloud cover early in the day. This supports the market's strong consensus at 30°C as the implied outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected frontal passages or enhanced precipitation that could cap the daily maximum below the threshold, though model consensus currently shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,079End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather project Tokyo's peak temperature on August 10, 2026, near 31°C (88°F) amid typical midsummer conditions driven by the East Asian monsoon pattern, high humidity exceeding 70%, and the urban heat island effect amplifying daytime warming. Historical August baselines show average highs of 30–32°C with frequent exceedances of 30°C due to subtropical air masses and limited cloud cover early in the day. This supports the market's strong consensus at 30°C as the implied outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected frontal passages or enhanced precipitation that could cap the daily maximum below the threshold, though model consensus currently shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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