Japan Meteorological Agency initial forecasts on April 10 projected a Tokyo high of 27°C for April 11 amid fair skies and mild southerly flow, but updated observations from the Tokyo Haneda Airport station—Polymarket's resolution source via Weather Underground—confirm the actual peak at 25°C around 2 p.m. JST, with temperatures dropping thereafter under partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Persistent afternoon cloud cover suppressed further heating, aligning with historical April patterns where urban heat islands rarely exceed model caps by more than 1–2°C. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 25°C reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of finalized hourly data, though a rare post-sunset measurement revision or station anomaly could theoretically challenge it before resolution. JMA's evening update lists 23°C as the realized high, underscoring minor site variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 11?
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$246,281 Vol.
$246,281 Vol.
Apr 11, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$246,281 Vol.
$246,281 Vol.
Apr 11, 2026
16°C or below
$20,949 Vol.
No
17°C
$9,495 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,468 Vol.
No
19°C
$16,297 Vol.
No
20°C
$16,832 Vol.
No
21°C
$24,177 Vol.
No
22°C
$38,788 Vol.
No
23°C
$20,457 Vol.
No
24°C
$26,853 Vol.
No
25°C
$28,529 Vol.
Yes
26°C or higher
$40,435 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency initial forecasts on April 10 projected a Tokyo high of 27°C for April 11 amid fair skies and mild southerly flow, but updated observations from the Tokyo Haneda Airport station—Polymarket's resolution source via Weather Underground—confirm the actual peak at 25°C around 2 p.m. JST, with temperatures dropping thereafter under partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Persistent afternoon cloud cover suppressed further heating, aligning with historical April patterns where urban heat islands rarely exceed model caps by more than 1–2°C. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 25°C reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of finalized hourly data, though a rare post-sunset measurement revision or station anomaly could theoretically challenge it before resolution. JMA's evening update lists 23°C as the realized high, underscoring minor site variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$246,281End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency initial forecasts on April 10 projected a Tokyo high of 27°C for April 11 amid fair skies and mild southerly flow, but updated observations from the Tokyo Haneda Airport station—Polymarket's resolution source via Weather Underground—confirm the actual peak at 25°C around 2 p.m. JST, with temperatures dropping thereafter under partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Persistent afternoon cloud cover suppressed further heating, aligning with historical April patterns where urban heat islands rarely exceed model caps by more than 1–2°C. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 25°C reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of finalized hourly data, though a rare post-sunset measurement revision or station anomaly could theoretically challenge it before resolution. JMA's evening update lists 23°C as the realized high, underscoring minor site variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$246,281End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency initial forecasts on April 10 projected a Tokyo high of 27°C for April 11 amid fair skies and mild southerly flow, but updated observations from the Tokyo Haneda Airport station—Polymarket's resolution source via Weather Underground—confirm the actual peak at 25°C around 2 p.m. JST, with temperatures dropping thereafter under partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Persistent afternoon cloud cover suppressed further heating, aligning with historical April patterns where urban heat islands rarely exceed model caps by more than 1–2°C. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 25°C reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of finalized hourly data, though a rare post-sunset measurement revision or station anomaly could theoretically challenge it before resolution. JMA's evening update lists 23°C as the realized high, underscoring minor site variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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