**Trader consensus at 100% for a 31°C high in Shenzhen on September 7 reflects official station observations peaking at that level amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and humidity near 80%.** Recent model runs and local monitoring aligned on modest daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air or strong insolation, consistent with early September climatology for the region where daily maxima typically range 30–33°C. The narrow outcome pricing incorporates real-time data from authoritative sources, with minimal divergence among forecasts. A late-day spike from localized heating or measurement adjustments could theoretically shift resolution, though current conditions and historical patterns make such changes improbable.