Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models project a daytime high of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on September 5 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market’s near-certain 31°C outcome. Current observations near 29–30°C and September climatology (typical maxima 30–32°C) reinforce this consensus, with limited model spread on steering patterns and moisture. Heavy afternoon convection could briefly suppress readings, but sustained cloud cover or stronger rain bands would be required to keep the peak below 31°C; clearer conditions or delayed precipitation might instead allow a brief push toward 33°C. Traders’ real-capital positioning aggregates these verified atmospheric data into the dominant implied probability.