Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies monitoring the South China Sea region indicate a maximum temperature of 36°C for Shenzhen on August 9, driven by typical subtropical summer conditions with high humidity, light winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit excessive daytime heating. This aligns with climatological averages near 32–34°C and observed trends in August heat indices. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts, where ensemble outputs converge on this value. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or stronger onshore flow introducing cooler marine air, potentially capping the high below the threshold, though current model runs show low probability for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 9?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 9?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$139,339 Vol.
$139,339 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$139,339 Vol.
$139,339 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
30°C or below
$1,540 Vol.
No
31°C
$15,744 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,413 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,744 Vol.
No
34°C
$10,078 Vol.
No
35°C
$14,507 Vol.
No
36°C
$27,219 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$15,263 Vol.
No
38°C
$19,555 Vol.
No
39°C
$17,174 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$14,102 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies monitoring the South China Sea region indicate a maximum temperature of 36°C for Shenzhen on August 9, driven by typical subtropical summer conditions with high humidity, light winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit excessive daytime heating. This aligns with climatological averages near 32–34°C and observed trends in August heat indices. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts, where ensemble outputs converge on this value. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or stronger onshore flow introducing cooler marine air, potentially capping the high below the threshold, though current model runs show low probability for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$139,339End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies monitoring the South China Sea region indicate a maximum temperature of 36°C for Shenzhen on August 9, driven by typical subtropical summer conditions with high humidity, light winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit excessive daytime heating. This aligns with climatological averages near 32–34°C and observed trends in August heat indices. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts, where ensemble outputs converge on this value. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or stronger onshore flow introducing cooler marine air, potentially capping the high below the threshold, though current model runs show low probability for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$139,339End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies monitoring the South China Sea region indicate a maximum temperature of 36°C for Shenzhen on August 9, driven by typical subtropical summer conditions with high humidity, light winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit excessive daytime heating. This aligns with climatological averages near 32–34°C and observed trends in August heat indices. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts, where ensemble outputs converge on this value. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected convective development or stronger onshore flow introducing cooler marine air, potentially capping the high below the threshold, though current model runs show low probability for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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