Recent official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C for Shenzhen on August 19 under subtropical monsoon conditions typical for the region in mid-August. This aligns with historical averages near 32°C but reflects current atmospheric patterns favoring slightly elevated readings, supported by observed trends in humidity, wind flow, and minimal cloud cover that limit cooling. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 35°C outcome incorporates real-time data updates and skin-in-the-game assessment of model reliability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift such as rapid afternoon convection or revised observational data from local stations pushing the verified high outside the narrow resolution band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$242,723 Vol.
$242,723 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$242,723 Vol.
$242,723 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
$21,515 Vol.
No
28°C
$27,065 Vol.
No
29°C
$28,850 Vol.
No
30°C
$22,347 Vol.
No
31°C
$71,169 Vol.
No
32°C
$15,471 Vol.
No
33°C
$12,051 Vol.
No
34°C
$15,098 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,123 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$13,262 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$7,772 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C for Shenzhen on August 19 under subtropical monsoon conditions typical for the region in mid-August. This aligns with historical averages near 32°C but reflects current atmospheric patterns favoring slightly elevated readings, supported by observed trends in humidity, wind flow, and minimal cloud cover that limit cooling. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 35°C outcome incorporates real-time data updates and skin-in-the-game assessment of model reliability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift such as rapid afternoon convection or revised observational data from local stations pushing the verified high outside the narrow resolution band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$242,723End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C for Shenzhen on August 19 under subtropical monsoon conditions typical for the region in mid-August. This aligns with historical averages near 32°C but reflects current atmospheric patterns favoring slightly elevated readings, supported by observed trends in humidity, wind flow, and minimal cloud cover that limit cooling. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 35°C outcome incorporates real-time data updates and skin-in-the-game assessment of model reliability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift such as rapid afternoon convection or revised observational data from local stations pushing the verified high outside the narrow resolution band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$242,723End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C for Shenzhen on August 19 under subtropical monsoon conditions typical for the region in mid-August. This aligns with historical averages near 32°C but reflects current atmospheric patterns favoring slightly elevated readings, supported by observed trends in humidity, wind flow, and minimal cloud cover that limit cooling. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for the 35°C outcome incorporates real-time data updates and skin-in-the-game assessment of model reliability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected shift such as rapid afternoon convection or revised observational data from local stations pushing the verified high outside the narrow resolution band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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