Strong model consensus from regional meteorological ensembles supports the near-certain 37°C market-implied odds for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure promoting clear skies, light winds, and intense surface heating during peak afternoon hours. Official guidance projects daytime highs of 35–37°C amid elevated humidity, amplified by the urban heat-island effect typical of the region where concrete and asphalt retain warmth. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, yet recent patterns and short-range model agreement on steering currents reinforce this outcome. A realistic challenge remains if unexpected convective showers develop or post-event observational revisions from local stations lower the verified peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$111,176 Vol.
$111,176 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
Yes
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$111,176 Vol.
$111,176 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
29°C or below
$504 Vol.
No
30°C
$393 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,336 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,963 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,410 Vol.
No
34°C
$13,710 Vol.
No
35°C
$11,303 Vol.
No
36°C
$42,782 Vol.
No
37°C
$16,032 Vol.
Yes
38°C
$9,292 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$5,451 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from regional meteorological ensembles supports the near-certain 37°C market-implied odds for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure promoting clear skies, light winds, and intense surface heating during peak afternoon hours. Official guidance projects daytime highs of 35–37°C amid elevated humidity, amplified by the urban heat-island effect typical of the region where concrete and asphalt retain warmth. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, yet recent patterns and short-range model agreement on steering currents reinforce this outcome. A realistic challenge remains if unexpected convective showers develop or post-event observational revisions from local stations lower the verified peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$111,176End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from regional meteorological ensembles supports the near-certain 37°C market-implied odds for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure promoting clear skies, light winds, and intense surface heating during peak afternoon hours. Official guidance projects daytime highs of 35–37°C amid elevated humidity, amplified by the urban heat-island effect typical of the region where concrete and asphalt retain warmth. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, yet recent patterns and short-range model agreement on steering currents reinforce this outcome. A realistic challenge remains if unexpected convective showers develop or post-event observational revisions from local stations lower the verified peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$111,176End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong model consensus from regional meteorological ensembles supports the near-certain 37°C market-implied odds for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure promoting clear skies, light winds, and intense surface heating during peak afternoon hours. Official guidance projects daytime highs of 35–37°C amid elevated humidity, amplified by the urban heat-island effect typical of the region where concrete and asphalt retain warmth. Historical August baselines average around 32°C, yet recent patterns and short-range model agreement on steering currents reinforce this outcome. A realistic challenge remains if unexpected convective showers develop or post-event observational revisions from local stations lower the verified peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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