China Meteorological Administration hourly data confirms Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15 peaked at exactly 30°C, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% market-implied probability and driving negligible odds for 31°C or higher. This positioning reflects observed partly sunny conditions under a subtropical high-pressure ridge capping daytime highs, consistent with recent forecast model ensembles from global and regional sources projecting maxima near 86°F amid typical April climatology (average highs around 26-27°C). While inherent measurement variability exists across urban stations, realistic challenges would require verified late-afternoon revisions exceeding 30°C from official records—unlikely given synchronized real-time reports and diurnal cooling trends post-3 PM local time. Final resolution awaits end-of-day aggregation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$137,674 Vol.
$137,674 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$137,674 Vol.
$137,674 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
22°C or below
$934 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,543 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,907 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,807 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,204 Vol.
No
27°C
$12,317 Vol.
No
28°C
$16,325 Vol.
No
29°C
$52,109 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,954 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$14,810 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$12,765 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.China Meteorological Administration hourly data confirms Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15 peaked at exactly 30°C, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% market-implied probability and driving negligible odds for 31°C or higher. This positioning reflects observed partly sunny conditions under a subtropical high-pressure ridge capping daytime highs, consistent with recent forecast model ensembles from global and regional sources projecting maxima near 86°F amid typical April climatology (average highs around 26-27°C). While inherent measurement variability exists across urban stations, realistic challenges would require verified late-afternoon revisions exceeding 30°C from official records—unlikely given synchronized real-time reports and diurnal cooling trends post-3 PM local time. Final resolution awaits end-of-day aggregation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$137,674End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.China Meteorological Administration hourly data confirms Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15 peaked at exactly 30°C, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% market-implied probability and driving negligible odds for 31°C or higher. This positioning reflects observed partly sunny conditions under a subtropical high-pressure ridge capping daytime highs, consistent with recent forecast model ensembles from global and regional sources projecting maxima near 86°F amid typical April climatology (average highs around 26-27°C). While inherent measurement variability exists across urban stations, realistic challenges would require verified late-afternoon revisions exceeding 30°C from official records—unlikely given synchronized real-time reports and diurnal cooling trends post-3 PM local time. Final resolution awaits end-of-day aggregation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$137,674End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
China Meteorological Administration hourly data confirms Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15 peaked at exactly 30°C, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% market-implied probability and driving negligible odds for 31°C or higher. This positioning reflects observed partly sunny conditions under a subtropical high-pressure ridge capping daytime highs, consistent with recent forecast model ensembles from global and regional sources projecting maxima near 86°F amid typical April climatology (average highs around 26-27°C). While inherent measurement variability exists across urban stations, realistic challenges would require verified late-afternoon revisions exceeding 30°C from official records—unlikely given synchronized real-time reports and diurnal cooling trends post-3 PM local time. Final resolution awaits end-of-day aggregation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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