Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 11?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$323,672 Vol.
$323,672 Vol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$323,672 Vol.
$323,672 Vol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
$10,067 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,832 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,074 Vol.
No
24°C
$13,587 Vol.
No
25°C
$13,220 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,693 Vol.
No
27°C
$20,922 Vol.
No
28°C
$24,395 Vol.
No
29°C
$35,564 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$107,250 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$68,070 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ET
Volume
$323,672End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$323,672End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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