Official meteorological observations from Shanghai stations confirm a daily maximum of 29°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate easterly winds have limited diurnal heating and prevented any late-day spike, aligning with regional model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian summer conditions. Historical August baselines near 31–32°C underscore how today's suppressed temperatures reflect atypical atmospheric stability rather than typical heat buildup. Final verification data releases could theoretically adjust readings if additional station reports emerge, though current evidence leaves little scope for upward revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$232,207 Vol.
$232,207 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$232,207 Vol.
$232,207 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$504 Vol.
No
24°C
$504 Vol.
No
25°C
$447 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,815 Vol.
No
27°C
$10,782 Vol.
No
28°C
$138,515 Vol.
No
29°C
$23,418 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$23,689 Vol.
No
31°C
$17,144 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,914 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$5,476 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations from Shanghai stations confirm a daily maximum of 29°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate easterly winds have limited diurnal heating and prevented any late-day spike, aligning with regional model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian summer conditions. Historical August baselines near 31–32°C underscore how today's suppressed temperatures reflect atypical atmospheric stability rather than typical heat buildup. Final verification data releases could theoretically adjust readings if additional station reports emerge, though current evidence leaves little scope for upward revision.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$232,207End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations from Shanghai stations confirm a daily maximum of 29°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate easterly winds have limited diurnal heating and prevented any late-day spike, aligning with regional model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian summer conditions. Historical August baselines near 31–32°C underscore how today's suppressed temperatures reflect atypical atmospheric stability rather than typical heat buildup. Final verification data releases could theoretically adjust readings if additional station reports emerge, though current evidence leaves little scope for upward revision.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$232,207End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological observations from Shanghai stations confirm a daily maximum of 29°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate easterly winds have limited diurnal heating and prevented any late-day spike, aligning with regional model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian summer conditions. Historical August baselines near 31–32°C underscore how today's suppressed temperatures reflect atypical atmospheric stability rather than typical heat buildup. Final verification data releases could theoretically adjust readings if additional station reports emerge, though current evidence leaves little scope for upward revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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