Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Shanghai's highest temperature on April 11, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations at the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) station—recording a midday peak of 18°C (64°F) around 11:00–12:30 local time under overcast skies and light rain. Post-frontal cooling from a recent weather system has ushered in a cool, moist air mass typical of mid-April climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C, with cloud cover and precipitation capping diurnal warming. Forecast ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration align with this, projecting no further spikes. Realistic challenges include abrupt clearing for brief solar heating to 19°C, though prevailing showers and north-northeasterly winds make exceedance improbable; final evening observations will seal the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 11?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$327,598 Vol.
$327,598 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$327,598 Vol.
$327,598 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Shanghai's highest temperature on April 11, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by official observations at the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) station—recording a midday peak of 18°C (64°F) around 11:00–12:30 local time under overcast skies and light rain. Post-frontal cooling from a recent weather system has ushered in a cool, moist air mass typical of mid-April climatology, where average highs hover near 18°C, with cloud cover and precipitation capping diurnal warming. Forecast ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration align with this, projecting no further spikes. Realistic challenges include abrupt clearing for brief solar heating to 19°C, though prevailing showers and north-northeasterly winds make exceedance improbable; final evening observations will seal the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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