**KMA short-range guidance and real-time observational trends have driven the near-certain market consensus on a 36°C daily maximum at the Incheon station for August 8.** Persistent heatwave conditions across the Seoul metropolitan area, with active emergency warnings and dew points supporting elevated heat indices, align with ensemble model outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Recent days have seen maxima cluster tightly around 34–37°C under similar synoptic patterns, lending historical precedent. The implied probability reflects trader assessment that additional intensification is unlikely before resolution criteria are met, though a late surge in insolation or model error could still shift the recorded high by a degree in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$132,576 Vol.
$132,576 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$132,576 Vol.
$132,576 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
31°C or below
$12,749 Vol.
No
32°C
$7,492 Vol.
No
33°C
$7,674 Vol.
No
34°C
$21,668 Vol.
No
35°C
$11,869 Vol.
No
36°C
$28,879 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$25,326 Vol.
No
38°C
$10,733 Vol.
No
39°C
$3,395 Vol.
No
40°C
$2,334 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$458 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**KMA short-range guidance and real-time observational trends have driven the near-certain market consensus on a 36°C daily maximum at the Incheon station for August 8.** Persistent heatwave conditions across the Seoul metropolitan area, with active emergency warnings and dew points supporting elevated heat indices, align with ensemble model outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Recent days have seen maxima cluster tightly around 34–37°C under similar synoptic patterns, lending historical precedent. The implied probability reflects trader assessment that additional intensification is unlikely before resolution criteria are met, though a late surge in insolation or model error could still shift the recorded high by a degree in either direction.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$132,576End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**KMA short-range guidance and real-time observational trends have driven the near-certain market consensus on a 36°C daily maximum at the Incheon station for August 8.** Persistent heatwave conditions across the Seoul metropolitan area, with active emergency warnings and dew points supporting elevated heat indices, align with ensemble model outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Recent days have seen maxima cluster tightly around 34–37°C under similar synoptic patterns, lending historical precedent. The implied probability reflects trader assessment that additional intensification is unlikely before resolution criteria are met, though a late surge in insolation or model error could still shift the recorded high by a degree in either direction.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$132,576End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**KMA short-range guidance and real-time observational trends have driven the near-certain market consensus on a 36°C daily maximum at the Incheon station for August 8.** Persistent heatwave conditions across the Seoul metropolitan area, with active emergency warnings and dew points supporting elevated heat indices, align with ensemble model outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Recent days have seen maxima cluster tightly around 34–37°C under similar synoptic patterns, lending historical precedent. The implied probability reflects trader assessment that additional intensification is unlikely before resolution criteria are met, though a late surge in insolation or model error could still shift the recorded high by a degree in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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