Official measurements from São Paulo’s meteorological stations, including those operated under INMET protocols, recorded a daytime maximum of 31°C on August 18 under clear skies and dry winter conditions typical for the region. Numerical weather models and recent observational trends in temperature, humidity, and wind patterns aligned closely with this outcome, producing strong trader consensus around the 31°C threshold. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect aggregated real-capital assessments of verified station data rather than forecasts. While post-event quality-control revisions or station-specific microclimate differences could theoretically alter the final reported value, such adjustments remain rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 18?
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$32,259 Vol.
$32,259 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$32,259 Vol.
$32,259 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$40 Vol.
No
25°C
$308 Vol.
No
26°C
$317 Vol.
No
27°C
$626 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,964 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,389 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,705 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,901 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,032 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,426 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$1,550 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official measurements from São Paulo’s meteorological stations, including those operated under INMET protocols, recorded a daytime maximum of 31°C on August 18 under clear skies and dry winter conditions typical for the region. Numerical weather models and recent observational trends in temperature, humidity, and wind patterns aligned closely with this outcome, producing strong trader consensus around the 31°C threshold. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect aggregated real-capital assessments of verified station data rather than forecasts. While post-event quality-control revisions or station-specific microclimate differences could theoretically alter the final reported value, such adjustments remain rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$32,259End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official measurements from São Paulo’s meteorological stations, including those operated under INMET protocols, recorded a daytime maximum of 31°C on August 18 under clear skies and dry winter conditions typical for the region. Numerical weather models and recent observational trends in temperature, humidity, and wind patterns aligned closely with this outcome, producing strong trader consensus around the 31°C threshold. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect aggregated real-capital assessments of verified station data rather than forecasts. While post-event quality-control revisions or station-specific microclimate differences could theoretically alter the final reported value, such adjustments remain rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,259End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official measurements from São Paulo’s meteorological stations, including those operated under INMET protocols, recorded a daytime maximum of 31°C on August 18 under clear skies and dry winter conditions typical for the region. Numerical weather models and recent observational trends in temperature, humidity, and wind patterns aligned closely with this outcome, producing strong trader consensus around the 31°C threshold. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect aggregated real-capital assessments of verified station data rather than forecasts. While post-event quality-control revisions or station-specific microclimate differences could theoretically alter the final reported value, such adjustments remain rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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