Official observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco stations recorded a daily maximum of 64–65°F on September 16, 2026, under marine layer influence and moderate onshore flow that suppressed afternoon warming below the seasonal normal of roughly 71°F. This aligns with verified surface data and model consensus showing limited solar heating amid persistent stratus and light winds. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with these post-event measurements. Resolution could shift only under rare scenarios such as official data revisions, station-specific discrepancies between downtown and airport sites, or redefinition of the highest-temperature criterion after final quality control.