Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 11?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 11?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$142,617 Vol.
$142,617 Vol.
May 11, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$142,617 Vol.
$142,617 Vol.
May 11, 2026
17°C or below
$14,332 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,677 Vol.
No
19°C
$6,401 Vol.
No
20°C
$9,180 Vol.
No
21°C
$9,330 Vol.
No
22°C
$41,871 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,385 Vol.
No
24°C
$12,717 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,208 Vol.
No
26°C
$24,045 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$5,471 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ET
Volume
$142,617End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$142,617End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions